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]]>You are right, Thomas. People are very strange in their behaviour.
]]>I feel the same. However, the principle of thinking things through instead of trusting instincts and first impressions applies is taught by this example, and that applies everywhere. Being able to use the known facts and formulate a probability, is the basis for all good decision making in life, but almost no one does this. Most of us are really bad at making decisions and deciding what is true. I think this example gives us some insights and it’s not just for a game show.
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]]>Yes, if you think through it, then it does, but it is not an easy puzzle. It makes you understand that you have to think through things instead of relying on what at first seems right.
]]>That is great. It is not just about the game show though. Being able to use what facts you have to estimate a probability is the basis for almost all decision making in life and as psychologists have noted, we are very bad at it. Most people get stuck on what seems to make sense to them at first without thinking it through. Like the, it-must-be-50/50 trap in this case.
]]>Most people believe whatever thought feels right without thinking it through well. That goes for me too even though I am working on it. That da-AL and you figured it out is kind of amazing. You are right, people were not treating her right. Someone with an IQ 228 does not have to be right all the time but if I have an IQ 100 and I disagree with an IQ 228 on a logical puzzle, that is a red flag. You would think people would at least be more humble about it and consider the possibility that they are wrong.
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]]>da-AL, you are wondering how we survived, and I have to say that’s an interesting thought. Good decision making, especially in the modern world, require us to use the facts we have and figure out probabilities and as a psychologist noted, we are super bad at it. Our brains aren’t built for it, but we need it. This is just an example, but it is an example of how we get stuck on first impressions (must be 50/50), gut feelings, and does not think through deeply what is going on. The game show ran for decades without anyone figuring it out, and Marilyn starts a media storm by figuring it out. That’s how bad we are.
]]>Yes you are right Robbie. Being able to use the known facts to figure out a probability is key to so much decision making in life, and most of us are really bad at it. That’s why I think an example like this is important. We shouldn’t just use the first impression or a gut feeling but think things through well.
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]]>Well, I wouldn’t be on a game show so I’d never be in this exact situation, but the principle applies to other situations. Maybe we are just the smart ones – wink!
]]>HI Thomas, very interesting about this woman and terrible about the abuse she faced when she was right. I never understand how other people thing so can’t understand why they wouldn’t obviously switch – haha! Mind you, I get told repeatedly by my work leadership that not everyone thinks like me.
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