I created a Facebook page for my super facts or Superfactful blog. The purpose of this post is partially to test if my posts here are showing up on my super fact Facebook page, but it is also to invite you all to follow my Superfactful Facebook page if you wish, or my Leonberger book Facebook page, or send me a friend request to my personal Facebook. I am putting the links to all three below.
Note: I just checked and it is showing up on my new Facebook page
Despite all the news reports about rampant crime, the US violent crime rate has fallen to half of what it was in the early 1990’s.
I’ve known for a while that violent crime in the US has been going down substantially since 1990. However, quite often when I mention this people refuse to believe it. When I visit NextDoor, the hyperlocal social networking service for neighborhoods, I see people complaining about rising crime, and especially rising violent crime. The news media and the newspapers are filled with violent crime stories, murders, mass shootings, assaults, rape, and robberies. It seems to be getting worse and worse. We are living in scary times, aren’t we?
A couple of years ago I bought a book by Steven Pinker with the title The Better Angels of our Nature, why violence has declined, which contradicted the violence is getting worse narrative. In the book he claims that violence is trending down worldwide and that includes US violent crime.
In 1987 I received a Christmas present from the parents of a fellow student whom I had been tutoring. I was an exchange student to the United States from Sweden at the time. The Christmas present in question was the World Almanac of 1987. I loved it and ever since I’ve bought the World Almanac every year. If you open the pages for crime statistics in the United States in the World Almanac you see the same thing, violent crime in the US is declining.
Below is what the World Almanac 2023 says about the violent crime rate per 100,000 residents in the United States (page 114). The data sources were : Federal Bureau of Investigation, U.S. Department of Justice, Uniform Crime Reporting Program, Crime in the United States 2020. I also included property crimes in the last column to show that non-violent crimes have declined as well.
| Year | All violent crime | Murder and nonnegligent manslaughter | Rape | Robbery | Aggravated assault | All property crime (non-violent) |
| 1990 | 729.6 | 9.4 | 41.1 | 256.3 | 422.9 | 5,073.1 |
| 1995 | 684.5 | 8.2 | 37.1 | 220.9 | 418.3 | 4,590.5 |
| 2000 | 506.5 | 5.5 | 32.0 | 145.0 | 324.0 | 3,618.3 |
| 2005 | 469.0 | 5.6 | 31.8 | 140.8 | 290.8 | 3,431.5 |
| 2008 | 458.6 | 5.4 | 29.8 | 145.9 | 277.5 | 3,214.6 |
| 2011 | 387.1 | 4.7 | 27.0 | 113.9 | 241.5 | 2,905.4 |
| 2014 | 361.6 | 4.4 | 26.6 | 101.3 | 229.2 | 2,574.1 |
| 2016 | 386.6 | 5.4 | 30.0 | 102.9 | 248.3 | 2,451.6 |
| 2017 | 383.8 | 5.3 | 30.7 | 98.6 | 249.2 | 2,362.9 |
| 2018 | 370.4 | 5.0 | 31.0 | 86.1 | 248.2 | 2,209.8 |
| 2019 | 368.6 | 5.1 | 31.4 | 81.8 | 250.4 | 2,130.6 |
| 2020 | 387.8 | 6.5 | 27.6 | 73.9 | 279.7 | 1,958.2 |
The graph below is taken from this article from the Pew Research Center tells the same story. The graph. It shows that the US violent crime rate has nearly halved since the 1990’s. There is a slight uptick in crime for the years 2020 and 2021 but according to this PBS article the downward trend has continued in 2022 and 2023.
Since this is a surprising fact that some does not even want to acknowledge (in my experience) I consider this a super fact.
Do you feel it is hard to believe that violent crime in the US has been declining over the last few decades?
This post is not another super fact but a blog note about the blog and a request for opinions. My most recent post included three super facts combined into one post. The three super facts were:
The post became very long. It had more than 2,000 words and several graphs filled with additional text and data. In addition, I rushed the third super fact. The discussion of the third super fact was muddy, incomplete, and it lacked references. Therefore, I deleted the third super fact. I think that was the right thing to do, especially since I had planned a separate super fact entry for it anyway with the title “We are living in relatively peaceful times”. I will write that post for it soon.
The updated post featuring only the two first super facts is called: “Poverty and child mortality has been sharply reduced worldwide”.
However, I’ve realized that some of my other posts have problems as well. The second half of the post titled “Two events may be simultaneous for some but not for others” feature equations and complex reasoning that physics nerds may appreciate but not typical readers. I don’t think I need to delete that section but, in the future, I need separate such sections from the rest and make it clear that I don’t expect readers to read that, well unless they are physics or math nerds, etc.
So, I am wondering what you all think about this and if you have suggestions or opinions on how I can improve my super fact posts. Blog notes are very much welcome.
Superfact 7 : Poverty and child mortality has been sharply reduced worldwide.
Extreme poverty as well as child mortality has been sharply reduced the world over. The countries that are the worst-off today are still better off than the countries that were doing the best at the beginning of the 19th century. Over the last 20 years extreme poverty and child mortality has continued to decline sharply.
In Hans Rosling’s book Factfulness, “Ten Reasons We’re are Wrong About the World – and Why Things Are Better Than You Think”, the author presented a quiz that he wanted the reader to take before reading the book. Below is the third question of the quiz. I should say that Hans Rosling posed this and other questions to thousands of people around the world.
In the last 20 years, the proportion of the World population living in extreme poverty has…
The correct answer is C. Almost halved. Around 7% of the quiz takers got the right answer. Around 5% in the United States got it right. That the proportion of the World population living in extreme poverty halved in 20 years is a true fact. This is also an important fact about the world. Despite that most people got it wrong. In fact, monkeys randomly picking answers would do better (33%). I did pretty well on this quiz, but since I was reading the book and the book’s title is “Ten Reasons We’re are Wrong About the World – and Why Things Are Better Than You Think”, I got some help just looking at the front cover. In any case, I think this fact qualifies as a super fact, as do the other fact below (There has been a steep decline in child mortality).
There has been a steep decline in extreme poverty
According to the World Bank and Our Data World in Data, an organization which makes data in databases easily accessible to public, extreme poverty went from almost 80% 200 years ago, 60% 100 years ago, about 45% 50 years ago, 34.3% 30 years ago, 23.6% 20 years ago, 8.4% in 2019, then it went up to 9% during the covid epidemic but it seems to be back down to a bit above 8% again. See the graph below as well as the two linked articles in this paragraph.
I should say that extreme poverty is (by the UN, World Bank, etc.) “a condition characterized by severe deprivation of basic human needs, including food, safe drinking water, sanitation facilities, health, shelter, education and information” and is currently defined to be below $2.15. In 2011 it was below $1.90.
Other related statistics mentioned in Hans Rosling’s book is that the share of undernourished people went from 28% in 1970 to 11% in 2015. That is despite the earth’s growing population. Related to this is that cereal yield per hectare went from 1.4 ton in 1961 to 4 ton in 2014. This is due to modern agricultural techniques. The share of people with water from protected sources went from 58% in 1980 to 88% in 2015. This statistic was taken from WHO, UNICEF, the World Bank and FAO (the UN Food and Agriculture Organization).
According to Hans Rosling’s book the percent of children dying before their fifth birthday went from 44% in 1800 to 4% in 2016. To get a more complete picture see these articles from Our World In Data, article1, article2, as well as the graph below. For most of humanities existence virtually all societies suffered a child mortality rate between 40% and 60%, but that changed drastically over the last 100 years.
Below is the child mortality rate since 1950 for a few selected countries.
Radon represents our largest exposure to ionizing radiation. It is responsible for the majority of public exposure to harmful radiation. It is not the sun, the sky, nuclear weapons or nuclear power, or medical treatment, other terrestrial sources, it’s radon. Since we don’t talk much about the very deadly radiation emitted by the radon in our basements that may come as a surprise.
If a radioactive isotope has a long half-life, is that bad? I mean it will be around for a long time. Well, it is complicated. It is important to understand that if the decay rate for an isotope is very slow, in other words, it has a long half-life then it will be less radioactive. If the half-life is 1,000,000 shorter for an isotope X compared to an isotope Y (with a slower decay rate) than it is 1,000,000 more radioactive than isotope Y assuming their decay is of the same type. Short half life means more radioactivity. Long half-life means less radioactivity. The negative aspect of an isotope with a long half-life is that it will be around long, but the positive aspect is that it is less radioactive.
I should explain that isotopes mean that an atom can have a different number of neutrons. For example, carbon (coal) has a few common isotopes. C-12 has 6 protons and 6 neutrons, C-13 has 6 protons and 7 neutrons, C-14 has 6 protons and 8 neutrons. The isotope we are talking about when we talk about Radon is Radon-222. That is a really bad one. Radon-222 has a half life of 3.8 days which is 432 billion times shorter than Uranium-238, which has a half life of 4.5 billion years. So, if Radon-222 and Uranium-238 had the same type of decay (they don’t) Radon-222 would be 432 billion times more radioactive than Uranium-238.
Admittedly Uranium-238 isn’t very radioactive, you can safely hold it, but let’s take Plutonium-238, a famously radioactive isotope with a half-life of 87.7 years. Radon-222 has a half-life that is 8,424 times shorter yielding a decay rate and radiation intensity 8,424 times larger than Plutonium-238.
So, Radon-222 is indeed extremely radioactive. But that means it should disappear quickly. Unfortunately, the inside of the earth is constantly supplying more Radon-222 from the radioactive decay and fission occurring there. Nuclear fission (nuclear reactions) is happening inside the earth providing about half of earth’s heat and powering the movement of Earth’s continents and crust. Since Radon-222 is extremely radioactive and is being resupplied by our own planet it is a very big source of the radiation we are exposed to.
Among all the different kinds of sources it is the biggest one. Since Radon-222 is a natural phenomenon, and we focus on so many other types of other natural and unnatural radiation sources we tend to underestimate the problem. At least I did when we bought our first house. I was asking Radon, what Radon? I think it is a surprising and important fact and therefore a super fact.
The WHO estimates that radon exposure alone was estimated to have caused 84,000 deaths by lung cancer in one year. In 50 years, this would be 4.2 million deaths. The WHO predicted that the eventual total death toll from cancer related deaths from the worst nuclear disaster in history, Chernobyl, was 9,000, which is a lot less than 4.2 million. The numbers given by Greenpeace (which WHO does not accept) are up to a million and the Union of Concerned Scientists estimated 27,000.
Those numbers are all still smaller than the estimated deaths from Radon. Keep in mind that the Chernobyl reactor was a very dangerous reactor (RBMK) that lacked a containment shield, a reactor that could never be built in a western country. I can add that according to WHO the predicted future cancer deaths due to accumulated radiation exposures in the population living near Fukushima was between zero and a 100.
According to the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation, more than 40% of the average annual human exposure to ionizing radiation is radon in the air. The other sources (all smaller) are cosmic background radiation, terrestrial radiation from the ground, radiation in food and water, exposure to radiation by medical treatment/exams, nuclear testing, Chernobyl, etc. According to former U.S. Surgeon General Richard H. Carmona, Radon is responsible for the majority of public exposure to ionizing radiation. Radon in our basements is indeed a very big deal compared to other radiation sources.
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