Tag: Superfactful

Scientists Agree that Global Warming is happening and that we are the Cause

Super fact 34: Climate Scientists agree that Global Warming or if you call it Climate Change is happening, and that it is caused by us primarily because of our burning of fossil fuels. There is a long-standing scientific consensus on these two facts because the evidence is conclusive. Typically, studies show an agreement of at least 97% or 98% among climate scientists.

This is a super fact because surveys show that this is not what the public believes and yet it is true. The public incorrectly believes that there is a large disagreement among scientists on this topic. A note, to understand why the evidence is conclusive as to why global warming is happening and is caused by us click here.

Note : I will use the term “global warming” in this review. Whether you call the phenomenon climate change, climate disruption, or global heating, is not important.

The Scientific Consensus

This extensive survey from 2013 of 12,000 climate papers (papers published over two decades) by Dana Nuccitelli and Cook, etc., concluded that 97.1% of climate scientists endorsed the consensus position that humans are causing global warming.

They also did a science author self-rating which concluded that 97.2% of climate scientists endorsed the consensus position that humans are causing global warming. Another conclusion from the survey was that the consensus had increased from around 90%, perhaps less, in the early 1990’s.

A later review of six independent, peer-reviewed studies examining the scientific consensus about global warming have concluded that between 90% and 100% of climate scientists are convinced human-caused global warming is happening. A more recent study (2021) found that as many as 98% of climate scientists are convinced global warming is happening and is human-caused. Numerous other surveys have concluded the same thing.

People’s Beliefs About Global Warming

This 2024 survey from Yale University show that most Americans (61%) understand that global warming is mostly human caused. By contrast, 28% think it is caused mostly by natural changes in the environment. Most Americans (58%) <<Link-6>> understand that most scientists think global warming is happening. This percentage has trended generally upward since this survey began in 2008. By contrast, about one in five (22%) think there is a lot of disagreement among scientists about whether global warming is happening.

The green graph corresponds to “most scientists think global warming is happening (%).” The black graph corresponds to “there is a lot of disagreement among scientists (%)”. The yellow graph corresponds to “Most scientists think global warming is NOT happening (%)”. Graph taken from the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication.

However, only one in five Americans (20%) understand that nearly all climate scientists (more than 90%) think that human-caused global warming is happening. The aforementioned Dana  Nuccitelli refers to this in his book Climatology versus Pseudoscience as the consensus gap. Again, this large discrepancy between public perception and reality makes the consensus gap a super fact. Research has shown that this discrepancy has a large impact on people’s other beliefs regarding global warming.

The question was, To the best of your knowledge what percentage of climate scientists think that human-caused global warming is happening? Graph taken from the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication.

Why is there a Consensus Gap?

In his book Climatology versus Pseudoscience Dana Nuccitelli explains that a relatively small group of so-called climate skeptics, or more accurately called climate contrarians have received a lot of attention from media. Even though their science is bad, and they’ve published their error ridden papers in obscure or discredited journals, and the fact that their predictions have failed repeatedly many times over, they have had an enormous influence on public discourse. Conservative politicians, and many talk show hosts are blindly devoted to their falsehoods, whilst real scientists are being attacked.

It is not just rightwing media who are using them for their purposes, but mainstream media are giving the contrarians undue attention as well. Sensationalism is one issue. A science contrarian claiming that all the climate scientists are wrong, and that he is the only one who finally got it right is a lot more interesting of a story than a repeat of the consensus. Another issue is false balance. Journalist should not feel that they must give equal time to evidence-based science and nonsense, but that is often the case. To read my review of this book click here.

The Oregon Petition

I am mentioning the Oregon petition because I fell for it myself. The Oregon petition was an official looking petition circulated by climate contrarians, claiming that there is no evidence that human-caused global warming will cause catastrophic heating of earth’s atmosphere and disruption of earth’s climate, and that adding more carbon dioxide to the atmosphere would even be beneficial for plants and animals. It got an impressive number of signatures, 32,000 after some years.

However, it turned out that the signatories rarely had climate expertise, and were not scientists, and the survey listed many falsified names such as the names of the Spice Girls and several fictional characters. Less than 200 of the signatories were climate researchers.

It was a con, but it was touted in a lot of media as the truth. I saw it over and over and I believed it. I was later surprised to learn that it was a con and that a scientific consensus existed on global warming / climate change. Learning that I had been bamboozled on this matter was one of the red flags that prompted me to start doing some fact checking on the issue global warming.

To see the other Super Facts click here

Smallpox Killed 300 million People in the Last Century Before Eradication

Superfact 24: Smallpox killed 300 million people in the 20th century. However, there have been no naturally occurring cases of smallpox since 1977, and the world was declared free of smallpox on May 8, 1980, by the 33rd World Health Assembly.

Smallpox vaccine Stock Illustration ID: 1782022109 by Novikov Aleksey

300 million people is an astonishing number. It is six times the 50 million people who died from the Spanish flu. It is about four times as many people as the 70 to 85 million people who died in World War II. It is close to the entire current population of the United States. That’s how many people died from this very dangerous disease. It was eradicated by a vaccination campaign.

I think this fact qualify as a super-fact, first of all because of the astonishingly huge number of deaths but also for the fact that it is gone. It is hard to believe that this happened. It is hard to believe that the world has changed so drastically for the better. It is a shocking but true fact. Thanks to the vaccination campaign we are living in a much better world.

This world map shows when smallpox was eradicated from different countries. The source is Our World in Data, originally Fenner et al. at CDC.

What is Smallpox?

Smallpox is an infectious disease caused by the variola virus<<Link-1>>. The last naturally occurring case was diagnosed in October 1977, and the World Health Organization (WHO) certified the global eradication of the disease in 1980.  The disease begins with fever and vomiting followed by the formation of ulcers in the mouth and a skin rash that later turns into fluid filled blisters with a dent in the middle. These blisters get scabbed and leave scars. The death rate was about 30%.

Child with smallpox in Bangladesh 1975. Wikimedia commons photo by CDC/James Hicks.

The Eradication of Smallpox and Vaccines

The smallpox vaccine has a long history that begin in China where smallpox inoculation had existed long before it did in Europe. In 1796 the English physician Edward Jenner demonstrated the effectiveness of cowpox to protect humans from smallpox. Soon after several countries enacted mandatory vaccinations.

In 1807, Bavaria became the first country in the world to introduce compulsory vaccinations. In 1958 the World Health Assembly was called upon to eradicate smallpox. At this point 2 million people still died from smallpox every year. In 1967 the World Health Organization intensified the global smallpox eradication. As mentioned, smallpox was eradicated at the end of the 1970’s.

In 1998 & 2002 vaccination was dealt a blow by the Wakefield studies claiming that the MMR vaccine caused autism. Even though the studies were debunked, and several later studies showed no link between the MMR vaccines and autism, the fear of vaccines began to spread.  

For example, in 2024 the American Veterinary Medical Association reported 37% of the dog owners surveyed believe canine vaccination could cause autism in their dogs. Not only is there no link between vaccines and autism, but technically speaking, dogs cannot be autistic as the condition is unique to humans. Unfortunately, the unnecessary fear of vaccines causing autism seems to only be getting worse.

To see the other Super Facts click here

Are you vaccinated against smallpox?

The Surprising Monty Hall Problem

Superfact 22: Suppose you’re on a game show, and you’re given the choice between three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the other two doors there are goats. You want to pick the car. You pick a door, and the host, who knows what’s behind the three doors, opens another door revealing a goat. Now the question is, is it to your advantage to switch door choice? The answer is yes. And that is the surprising Monty Hall Problem.

The Monty Hall gameshow Three Doors Problem. There is a car behind one door, and goats behind the other two. You pick a door. Monty Hall, the gameshow host, opens one of the other doors and it has a goat. Should you change your choice of door? Yes, you should. But why? – Monty Hall Problem Stock Illustration ID: 1881849649 by SATYA94.

It is quite common to argue that it does not matter. You don’t know what is behind the two remaining doors so it should be 50/50 right? In a test involving 228 people only 13% chose to switch. However, you should switch.

Monty Hall, the gameshow host of the Let’s Make a Deal television game show, knows where the car is, so he never chooses the door with the car. And by curating the remaining two doors for you, he raises the odds that switching is always a good bet. By switching your choice, you have a 2/3 chance of winning the car but if you stay with your original choice, you only have a 1/3 chance of winning the car.

So why is this a super-fact? First, we know it is true. It is mathematically proven and experimentally verified that switching door is the best choice. Secondly, this was widely contested and is still surprising to people. Finally, probabilistic thinking is the key to being rational and making good decisions. This fact is true, important and disputed and thus a super fact.

One way of viewing the situation is by noting that there is a 1/3 chance that the car is behind any door that the contestant picks and a 2/3 chance that the car is behind one of the other two doors.

The car has a 1/3 chance of being behind the contestant’s pick and a 2/3 chance of being behind the other two doors. Picture from Wikimedia commons public domain.

If Monty opens one of the two doors that the contestant did not pick there is still a 1/3 probability that the car is behind the door the contestant picked and a 2/3 chance that the car is behind one of the other two doors. However, one of the doors that the contestant did not pick is now known to feature a goat. Therefore, the probability that the car is behind the other door is 2/3.

The host opens a door. The odds for the two sets don’t change but the odds become 0 for the open door and 2/3 for the closed door. Picture from Wikimedia commons public domain.

The table below is probably (no pun intended) a better way of illustrating the situation. In the table door 1 is the door designated to be the contestant’s first choice. Monty opens one of the remaining doors that has a goat behind it.

Behind door 1Behind door 2Behind door 3Result if staying at door 1Result if switching to door offered.
GoatGoatCarWins goatWins Car
GoatCarGoatWins goatWins Car
CarGoatGoatWins CarWins goat

There are various other ways of explaining the situation including Steven Pinker’s approach. It is easy to test this is real life and repeated experiments and simulations shown that if you switch you have a 2/3 chance of winning.

As an example of the controversy this probability puzzle caused was Marily Savant’s column in Parade Magazine. As a side note, Marilyn Vos Savant is the person who has the highest recorded intelligence quotient (IQ) as stated in the Guinness Book of Records. In response to a question regarding the Monty Hall game show problem she wrote that you should switch. She received letters from 10,000 readers disputing this, including 1,000 with PhDs. In the long run she prevailed.

To see the other Super Facts click here

Neutering or spaying a dog at 6 months old can be dangerous to their health

Superfact 21: Neutering or spaying a dog at 6 months old can be dangerous to their health depending on breed. It is often recommended that you should neuter or spay your dog by the age of 6 months even as early as 8 weeks. This may be OK for some smaller breeds but is dangerous to the health and longevity of many larger breeds.

Many dog welfare organizations, SPCA, ASCA, etc., recommend that dogs are neutered or spayed by the age of 6 months, or even as early as 8 weeks. It is also a common advice in dog books.

In addition, some veterinarians still hold onto this belief. It is easy to understand why. Dogs running loose and causing unwanted pregnancies resulting in puppies having to be euthanized is a sad problem we don’t want. 

Unfortunately, research has shown that neutering or spaying a dog at 6 months old can be dangerous to their health depending on the breed. You may need to wait 18 months or two years, and some breeds should not be neutered at all. In addition to the scientists in the relevant fields, professional and certified breeders, AKC and dog breed clubs and veterinarians who kept themselves informed on this issue are all aware of this.

In other words, we know this to be true, it is an important fact since so many of us own a dog, roughly half of all US households do, and yet this information is highly surprising to many. This is why I consider it a super fact.

This is our Labrador Baylor and German Shepherd Baby. Too early neutering and spaying can severely harm their health.

This less than a year-old article from the AKC states that “an age of six to nine months of age may be appropriate for neutering or spaying a toy breed puppy or small breed puppy but a larger or giant breed may need to wait until they are near or over 12-18 months of age.” The article also provides the following interesting information.

Research conducted by the University of California – Davis reveals that for some dog breeds, neutering and spaying may be associated with the increased risks of certain health conditions such as joint disorders including hip or elbow dysplasia, cranial cruciate rupture or tear, and some cancers, such as lymphoma, mast cell tumor, hemangiosarcoma, and osteosarcoma.

The research conclusions are not surprising. Sex hormones are important in the development of any animal.  We know they affect psychological development as well as the musculoskeletal, cardiovascular, and the immune system.

I believe this is the University of California – Davis article in question. It is from 2020. Notice that the suggested guidelines for age of neutering is beyond 23 months for several of the giant breeds in the table featuring 35 breeds.

Our three months old Leonberger Bronco. The Leonberger is a giant breed you can neuter when they are older than two years old.

Recommended Ages for Neutering and Spaying

Below is a list of recommended ages for neutering and spaying for selected dog breeds.

  • Australian Shepherd, for neutering and spaying it is your choice.
  • Bernese Mountain Dog, you should neuter beyond the age of 23 months, but for spaying you have a free choice.
  • Boxer, neuter and spay beyond the age of 23 months.
  • Boston Terrier, neuter beyond 11 months, but for spaying you have a free choice.
  • Doberman Pincher, never neuter, and you need to spay beyond the age of 23 months.
  • German Shepherd, neuter and spay beyond the age of 23 months.
  • Labrador Retriever, neuter beyond 6 months and spay beyond 11 months.
  • Corgi, neuter beyond 6 months, but for spaying you have a free choice.
  • Great Dane, despite being a very large dog you have a free choice for both neutering and spaying.
  • Rottweiler, neuter beyond 11 months, but for spaying beyond 6 months.
Our mini-Australian Shepherd puppy Rollo. You can neuter this breed at an earlier age.

We used to own a male Leonberger dog, which is a giant breed. Our breeder told us to wait beyond two years before neutering him, for health reasons. This article from Hillhaven Leonbergers states the following “We recommend not neutering until at least 2 years of age…Some Vets would recommend from 6 months but this is NOT a good idea.” To read more about the neutering and spaying of Leonberger dogs click here.

Our Leonberger dog Bronco is giving me a hug. He was about one year old in the picture. That is still too early to neuter him.

This article from the Saint Bernard Club of America states that “above all, no giant breed puppy should be altered before the growth plates in the bones have matured and closed, usually between 15 and 24 months of age.” This Newfoundland dog magazine states : Currently, the recommended age that a Newfoundland dog should be neutered is 18 to 24 months due to the possible health problems that can arise from altering before that age.

According to the article above you should wait to neuter Saint Bernard Dogs until they are close to two years old. Saint Bernard Stock Photo ID: 1713912484 by fred12.
According to the article above you should wait to neuter Newfoundland Dogs until they are between 18 to 24 months old. Newfoundland dog Stock Photo ID: 1925281937 by Marsan.

Even though the expert advice regarding the best age for neutering and spaying varies, it is clear that doing it at six months old is too early for many breeds and can harm their health.

To see the other Super Facts click here