Tag: History

Natural Disasters Kill Less People Now Than 100 Years Ago

Super fact 35: Natural disasters kill a lot less people now compared to 100 years ago. That is despite a larger population and despite the fact that climate change has increased the frequency and intensity of many types of natural disasters.

This is a super fact because surveys, such as this questionnaire from Gap Minder, show that the vast majority of the public (90%) believe that deaths from natural disasters have increased or stayed the same. Gap Minder is a Swedish highly respected non-profit founded by Hans Rosling that promotes increased use and understanding of statistics. Our World in Data (OWID), a renowned scientific online publication focusing on large global problems largely took its inspiration for Gap Minder and Hans Rosling.

The reason for the fewer deaths from natural disasters is not that there are fewer natural disasters, on the contrary, it is because we are now much better at predicting, handling and recovering from natural disasters. Our warnings systems, rescue systems and healthcare have improved significantly.

The graphics in this article from BBC show that the frequency of natural disasters has increased, and that the cost of natural disasters has increased, and yet the number of deaths has decreased.

The graph below comes from the Gap Minder article. It shows the annual deaths from natural disasters in ten-year intervals starting with 1930. In the 1930’s there were 971 thousand deaths per year from natural disasters and during the period 2010 to 2016 there were 72 thousand deaths per year from natural disasters, an improvement by more than 13 times.

However, it should be noted that there was a huge flood in China 1931 causing an estimated 3 million deaths, and it skews the numbers for the 1930’s interval.

Originally, I set the headline for this super fact to be “10 Times more people died from natural disasters a hundred years ago” but I changed it to “Natural Disasters Kill Less People Now Than 100 Years Ago” because I realized that the 1930’s peak is an outlier because of the 1931 flood. I don’t want my headlines to be click bait.

This graph from the Gap Minder article shows the annual deaths from natural disasters in ten-year intervals starting with 1930. The trend is down.

This does not mean that we should not worry about the increase in frequency and intensity of natural disasters from climate change. First of all, there are no warning systems and healthcare available for Koalas and Elephants, secondly cost matters, and thirdly there is no guarantee that we can keep improving our ability of predicting, handling and recovering from natural disasters enough to match the accelerating risks for natural disasters.

What People Believe Regarding Disaster Deaths

The Gap Minder article above report on a question survey conducted by Gap Minder. They asked large groups of people in 14 countries the following multiple-choice question “How did the number of deaths per year from natural disasters change over the last hundred years?” The choices were:

  • A. More than doubled
  • B. Remained more or less the same
  • C. Decreased to less than half

Most people answered A, a lot

of people answered B, but only 10% got the correct answer C, decreased to less than half. In other words, if chimpanzees had answered this question by randomly picking an answer, they would have done better than people. This is why I consider this a super fact. Below is a graphics taken from the Gap Minder article that shows how people in different countries responded.

The histogram graphics above show the answers to the question “How did the number of deaths per year from natural disasters change over the last hundred years?” The correct answer “decreased to less than half” (in green) was rarely picked. The graphics is taken from the Gap Minder article mentioned.

EF3 Tornado in Dallas

In October 2019 an EF3 tornado ripped through our neighborhood. It left a 2-3 miles long trail of destruction. Roofs were lifted off houses, cars and buses were flown around, hundreds of houses were destroyed, bricks were flying around in the wind, trees were uprooted, and tree branches were flying around, and pieces of concrete crashed into buildings and hit steel fences so forcefully that it bent even quarter inch thick steel fences.

Unlike many of our neighbor’s houses, our house stood, but our chimney was smashed by a piece of concrete coming off a neighbor’s house, we had to replace our roof, our garage door, the wiring in the attic, our fence and my grill flew around in the yard. The amazing thing was that no one in the neighborhood died.

Why did no one die? Was it maybe because no one was outside walking the dog, or driving around, because everyone had received the alarm on their mobile phone about the approaching tornado and was therefore sheltering inside in a safe place? Imagine the same thing happening in the 1930’s.

Below are a few photos from that day and here are two links with more photos, link-1 , link-2. On the five-year anniversary of this event NBC news interviewed me about this event. To see the interview click here . My interview is at one minute and ten seconds.

NBC used this photo. A neighbor’s house the morning of October 21st, 2019. Again, click on the image, or here, to see the interview. My interview is at one minute and ten seconds.
Another neighbor’s house. This house was about 100 yards from our house. It took a direct hit from the tornado.
Another house in our neighborhood.

My wife Claudia asked me to go check on her parents. I drove about 50-100 yards when a neighbor’s roof lying across the road stopped me. I turned around but this time I was stopped by a large pile of trees lying across the street. So, I started walking, but this time I was stopped by a group of firemen telling me that it was too dangerous to be outside. They told me to go back home, and I did. The next day we were able to visit her parents and below is what we saw.

Inside my wife Claudia’s parents’ house. This was the morning after. In the photo we are walking into their house to check on them (that’s my wife).
To see the other Super Facts click here

That Earth is round was well known long before Columbus

Image above by Kevin from The Beginning at Last

Super fact 28: That Earth is round, or spherical (or closely spherical) had been known for at least a couple of thousand years by the time Columbus set sail. Columbus did not set sail to prove that earth was round, and he knew it was round.

How I imagine one of Columbus’ ships. This is a submission for Kevin’s No Theme Thursday

The ancient Greeks, particularly philosophers like Pythagoras and Aristotle knew that earth was round from observing how ships disappeared over the horizon hull first, while their masts were still visible. They noticed the earth’s round shadow cast on the moon during lunar eclipses.

If earth was flat, earth’s shadow would not appear round, especially not all the time. They also noticed that different constellations were visible depending on the location (on earth). So, noticing that earth was round was a simple and obvious observation that easily could be made thousands of years ago.

Earth is a sphere, or closely spherical. Photo by Pixabay on Pexels.com.

According to historian Jeffrey Burton Russell, “no educated person in the history of Western Civilization from the third century B.C. onward believed that the Earth was flat.” In 240 BC (2,260 years ago) the Greek mathematician and philosopher Eratosthenes calculated the radius and circumference of earth within an error of 2%.  So why did Columbus want to sail west?

Columbus thought that the earth’s circumference was smaller than what Eratosthenes calculation had shown because he relied on maps created by Ptolemy instead of the calculations made by Eratosthenes. When he landed in the New World it seemed like Columbus had been vindicated but that did not last long. Essentially, Columbus sailed west and discovered America because he miscalculated the earth’s circumference.

Columbus thought earth was smaller. He did not know about the Pacific Ocean. Earth Pacific Ocean view Stock Illustration ID: 1617553012 by Matis75

It should be noted that even though the earth is very close to being a sphere, it is more correctly an ellipsoid because it is slightly bulging at the equator due to centrifugal forces. You sometimes hear people say that Copernicus or Galileo proposed that earth was round. This is of course false.

Copernicus’s theory of the solar system, the heliocentric model, proposed that the Sun is at the center of the solar system and the Earth, along with other planets, revolve around it. This was not a well-known fact at the time, unlike the fact that the earth is round. Galileo defended Copernicus theory. The famous alleged quote “And yet it moves” / “E pur si muove” is said to have originated from his argument with the church (however, this is not certain).

So, we know that people knew that earth was round thousands of years before Columbus, and thousands of years before the renaissance, and we know that Columbus did not sail west to prove that earth was round, and he certainly did not prove it. Yet I’ve heard this claim quite often, which is why I consider that earth being round being well known long before Columbus a super fact. Too few people believe earth to be flat like a pancake for me to consider earth being round a super fact.

Eratosthenes Calculates the Circumference of Earth

Around 500 BC (2,500 years ago) most Greeks believed that the Earth was round, but they did not know how big it was. The Greek philosopher and mathematician Eratosthenes devised a clever method of estimating its circumference and he got very close. He had heard from travelers about a well in Syene (now Aswan) that at noon on the summer solstice, about June 21 every year, the sun illuminated the entire bottom of a well, without casting any shadows, indicating that the sun was directly overhead. He had also heard that perfectly vertical poles had no shadows at this time.

The reason for this was that Syene/Aswan is located very close to the tropic of Cancer (23.5 degrees versus 24 degrees, or about 60 miles).

In Alexandria, north of Syene, the sun was not directly overhead on the summer solstice. Eratosthenes measured the angle of a shadow cast by a stick at noon on the summer solstice in Alexandria and found it to be 7.2 degrees. Using the distance from Alexandria to Syene and this angle Eratosthenes calculated earth’s circumference to be between 40,250 to 45,900 kilometers. Earth’s circumference is 40,075 kilometers.

Illustration of the measurement of the Earth circumference by Eratosthenes. On June 21st there is no shadow in Syene/Aswan but there is one in Alexandria. Asset id: 2319651251 by Javier Jaime

Resurgence in Flat Earth Beliefs

While very few people believed the Earth was flat 50 years ago, there has been a recent rise in Flat Earth conspiracy theories, largely fueled by online misinformation. Now a day 2% of Americans aged 18-24 years old firmly believe it is flat. That is despite the fact that it is easy to directly observe earth’s round shape. That is a small minority but why would anyone believe such a thing today.

For example, on a flat Earth, a Sun that shines in all directions would illuminate the entire surface at the same time, and all places would experience sunrise and sunset at the horizon at about the same time. With a spherical Earth, half the planet is in daylight at any given time and the other half experiences nighttime. Well just give someone overseas a phone call and you’ll see what the case is. In addition, different places have different amounts of daylight at the same time, which wouldn’t happen with a flat earth.

You can observe the round shape from an airplane. If you stand on a hill by the coast, you can see ships disappearing over the horizon hull first, and you can see earth’s round shadow cast on the moon during lunar eclipses. If you travel far, you can see the constellations and the stars being in different positions in the sky. The southern and northern hemisphere have completely different constellations.

Never mind Eratosthenes, gravity, the Coriolis force, other celestial bodies being round, eyewitness accounts by astronauts, ring-laser gyroscopes, and Foucault pendulums. The moon shows the same face to everyone on earth, which would not be possible if earth was flat. Also never mind NASA photos and the fact that no one has found the earth’s edge.

Below is a youTube video showing an animation composed of actual satellite photos by NASA. Earth is obviously round in this video.

In this video the near side of the moon is dark and what you see is the far side. The far side looks a little bit different from the near side of the moon. It is a new moon and the people on earth don’t see the moon. The sun is behind us and lights up both earth and the far side of the moon (this side people on earth do not see). Also, since there is daylight, the camera does not capture faint objects such as stars.

To see the other Super Facts click here

The Swedish War King

“The Swedish War King” is not about a super fact. It is just what I think might be interesting information. Americans are obsessed with the British Royalty. However,  there 43 monarchies around the world, including Sweden (my native country). Some of the kings and queens of the past are quite interesting.

The focus of this post is Karl XII  or Carolus Rex, the Swedish War King who invaded Russia before Napoleon did. I made a list of Swedish monarchs that I find interesting. Then I will focus on Karl XII . The number following the name of the king is his/her time of reign.

Painting of Gustav I Vasa liberator of Sweden from Denmark. Fashion was somewhat different back in the day.
  • Olof Skötkonung, 995–1022, son of King Erik VII and Sigrid the Haughty. He was Sweden’s first Christian King. The Swedish Viking era ended during his reign.
  • Erik IX, 1156 – 18 May 1160. Saint Erik was both a king and a saint. He tried to Christianize Finland and led the first crusade east. He was assassinated. Thereof his short reign.
  • Gustav Vasa or Gustav I, 6 June 1523 – 29 September 1560. From 1389 to 1523, Sweden was often united with Denmark and Norway under the kings of the Kalmar Union. Sweden’s full independence was restored under Gustav I in 1523. Gustav was elected king in Strängnäs 6 June 1523. Therefore, June 6 is celebrated as Sweden’s Independence Day. The Danish king at the time was King Christian II. In Sweden he is referred to Christian the Tyrant and in Denmark as Christian the Good.
  • Gustav II Adolf, 30 October 1611 – 6 November 1632. He is known as the “father of modern warfare”, or the first modern general, and under his reign Sweden became one of the great powers of Europe. Sweden was one of the primary military forces in Europe during the Thirty Years’ War (on the Protestant side). An estimated 4-8 million people died in the Thirty Years’ War, so this was a big war.
  • Queen Christina, 6 November 1632 – 16 June 1654. She was the daughter Gustav II Adolf. Gustav Adolf was closely attached to his daughter, and he taught her everything about being a monarch. Ironically, she fought to end the Thirty Years’ War. She converted to Catholicism, abdicated, and moved to Rome.
  • Carl XII, Charles XII, or Karl XII, or Carolus Rex, 5 April 1697 – 30 November 1718, was the Swedish War King, known for among other things invading Russia before Napoleon did. (see video below).
  • Gustav III, 12 February 1771 – 29 March 1792, was an autocrat and a believer in enlightened absolutism (educated despots). He ended the age of liberty and took away most of the powers of the riksdag/congress. He was assassinated.
  • Carl XIV Bernadotte or Charles XIV John, 5 February 1818 – 8 March 1844, was the king of Sweden and Norway. He was a former General in Napoleons army. Under his reign Sweden entered a long period of peace and neutrality that still lasts today. He is the founder of the current dynasty.
  • Carl XVI Gustaf Bernadotte or as he sometimes spells it himself Cal XVI, 15 September 1973 – present. He is champion for the dyslexic community. He was formerly made fun of because of his problems with spelling. Not anymore. His work for the dyslexic community has earned him respect.
The current Swedish Royal family. The two people in the middle are Queen Silvia and King Carl XVI Bernadotte. To the right of the king is the future monarch of Sweden princess Victoria and to the left of Queen Silvia is her husband. The others are their other two children and their spouses.

When Karl XII was king (5 April 1697 – 30 November 1718) Sweden was a large and powerful country. I should add that Sweden is viewed as a very small country, but it is significantly larger than California even today.

However, back when Karl XII became king Sweden included what is now Sweden, Finland, Estonia, parts of Norway, Denmark, Latvia, Germany, Poland, and Russia. Karl XII attempted to enlarge Sweden and in doing so he invaded Russia with a goal of taking Moscow and overthrow Tsar Peter the Great. It failed. The Russian winter killed the project.

According to the video below Karl XII was an inspiration for Napolean to do same thing. It was my blogger friend Debbie who alerted me this video. It is a bit long, 15 minutes, so you may want to watch only if you are really interested.

To see the Super Facts click here

The United States is a Republic and a Democracy

Superfact 12: The United States is both a Republic and a Democracy

I believe that most people do not find that statement surprising in the least. When I became a citizen of the United States, through naturalization (I am originally from Sweden), I had to learn about the US government, and I was told by the US government officials that the United States is both a Republic and a Democracy.

However, I’ve come across a lot of people who state something like “The United States is a Republic and therefore not a Democracy” as if being a Republic and a Democracy are mutually exclusive. Well, as this article explains it is not. To be very specific, the United States is a “federal constitutional representative democracy.” Because the United States is indeed both a Republic and a Democracy and yet many would dispute that fact, I consider this to be a super-fact.

This is an article from the United States Citizenship and Immigration Services on the topic that confirms that the United States is a Republic and a Democracy. This is an article from NPR on the topic. This is what the Wikipedia entry on the United States says under the headline “Government and politics” “It is a liberal representative democracy “in which majority rule is tempered by minority rights protected by law.””

The United States is a representative democracy. Photo by Brett Sayles on Pexels.com

It should be noted that United States is not a Direct Democracy, like ancient Greece, but it features some aspects of it in referendums. Just like most democracies around the world. Another thing to note is that the Economists Intelligence Unit downgraded the United States from a full democracy to a flawed democracy in 2016. But it is still a democracy.

Is the United States a democracy?

If you ask google / AI this question “Is the United States a democracy?”. The answer you get is:

The United States is a representative democracy. This means that our government is elected by citizens. Here, citizens vote for their government officials. These officials represent the citizens’ ideas and concerns in government.

When I asked ChatGPT the same question (Is the United States a democracy?) I got this answer:

Yes, the United States is considered a democracy, but more specifically, it is a representative democracy or democratic republic. In a pure democracy, citizens directly vote on all laws and policies. In a representative democracy, like in the U.S., citizens elect officials (such as members of Congress, the president, and local representatives) who make decisions and pass laws on their behalf.

The U.S. system is also based on the principles of constitutional democracy, where the rule of law, individual rights, and the separation of powers (between the executive, legislative, and judicial branches) are foundational. The Constitution guarantees these principles, which are designed to protect minority rights while allowing majority rule through democratic elections.

In summary, the U.S. combines democratic elements with a framework that ensures checks and balances to prevent abuses of power.

The United States Capitol Building in Washington DC. Photo by Patrick Morris on Pexels.com

Partisan politics aside, the consensus seems to be that the United States is both a Republic and a Democracy.

To see the other Super Facts click here

Sweden and Denmark and Gustav I Vasa

I am currently traveling in Scandinavia with my oldest son and his wife. Therefore, my blogging activities are a little bit less intense than usual. This post is factual, but it is not a super-fact post.

Yesterday, we visited Uppsala, a city north of Stockholm. Uppsala is Sweden’s fourth largest city, and it is the home to one of Europe’s most prominent universities, Uppsala University. This is also where I studied engineering physics before coming to the United States.

The largest cathedral in Sweden, Uppsala Domkyrka. This is where Gustav I Vasa is buried. Gustav I is arguably Sweden’s most prominent king.

During the Viking era Uppsala was the religious center of Sweden. Later as Sweden became Christian it remained the religious center of Sweden, however, the Viking temple in old Uppsala was replaced by a Christian church. Sweden’s largest cathedral, Uppsala Domkyrka, is located in Uppsala. Inside Uppsala Domkyrka is the tomb of the king that is considered to be the father of Sweden, Gustav I Vasa.

Inside Uppsala Domkyrka.

The relationships between the Scandinavian countries were quite complicated in the past, especially that between Sweden and Denmark. If you do a google search using the phrase “which two countries fought the most wars with each other” the top results all claim that this was Sweden and Denmark. The websites in question, Quora, Twitter and Reddit, aren’t reliable sources, so this may not be true. However, more reliable sources, such as historical sites, encyclopedia Britannica and Wikipedia state that Sweden and Denmark fought at least 11 wars with each other.

Denmark vs Sweden. The yellow and blue flag is the Swedish flag. Red and white is the Danish. Shutterstock Stock Photo ID: 1114320377 by Hasanov Jeyhun.

In 1397 a union was formed between Denmark, Norway and Sweden called the Kalmar Union (Kalmar is a city a Sweden). The Kalmar Union came to be dominated by Denmark and eventually Sweden rebelled against the Danish King Christian II. He was called Christian the Good in Denmark and Christian the Tyrant in Sweden.

This rebellion was led by a noble, Gustav Eriksson who later would be crowned as Gustav I Vasa. He was the first of the Vasa kings. Sweden declared its independence from Denmark on June 6th, 1523, which is why June 6th is Sweden’s national day, or Independence Day.

The Kalmar Union. Finland was part of Sweden at the time. Ssolbergj, CC BY-SA 3.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0&gt;, via Wikimedia Commons
Painting of Gustav I Vasa. Fashion was somewhat different back in the day.

Sweden and Denmark had a complicated history that included a lot of hostilities and wars, but you wouldn’t know it if you looked at the situation today. There hasn’t been a war between Sweden and Denmark in more than 180 years and Swedes and Danes get along very well, well as long as you don’t talk too much about the past. In my opinion Swedes and Danes get along better than Texans and Oklahomans. Maybe it helps that Swedes can’t understand what the Danes are saying.

The tomb of Gustav I Vasa in Uppsala Domkyrka. In the background is my son and his wife.

To see the Super Facts click here