Superfact 9 : We are living in relatively peaceful times
Despite all the wars going on, the world was filled with a lot more war and violence in the past. Despite the grim news reports we are living in relatively peaceful times.
If I asked you, what are the two biggest wars going on the world today (as of September 2024), you would probably say that it is the Russia / Ukraine war and the Israel / Gaza war. Well, unless you are really well informed, it would come as a surprise that there are more devastating wars going on in the world. For example, there is currently a big civil war going on in Sudan that began in April 2023.
According to the latest issue of the Economist perhaps 150,000 people have been slaughtered in this civil war, and 10 million people have fled their homes, and a famine is emerging that could kill 2.5 million people by the end of the year. This war is likely to destabilize neighboring countries and is sponsored by Russia and Middle Eastern states. It’s likely the biggest crisis in the world but most likely you’ve never heard of it.
In the recent Tigray war in Ethiopia between 162,000 and 600,000 people were killed according to Wikipedia. The Tigray war is mostly over, but the point I am trying to make is that you probably have never heard of it. You cannot use the impressions given by the amount of media attention a conflict gets to decide on how severe it is. You’ve got to check the statistics and compare, and the statistics might be quite unintuitive if you have relied on media attention as a metric.
What was the most devastating war in the 19th century?
So, to the next question. What was the most devastating war in the 19th century? If you say the American civil war, you are not correct (estimated 650,000+ deaths). A somewhat better answer is the Napoleonic wars (and estimated 4 million deaths). But none of the answers are correct. The Taiping rebellion in China was the worst. Estimates of the conflict’s death toll range between 20 and 30 million people. Some estimates say 100 million, which would make it the most devastating war in human history.
But did you hear about it? Again, you’ve got to check the statistics, and not rely on your impressions. I am saying this because the claim that deaths from wars and violence have declined over the last few decades is a quite unintuitive claim and yet it is true. That’s why it is a super fact.
As this article in the Our World In Data states “While every war is a tragedy, the data suggests that fewer people died in conflicts in recent decades than in most of the 20th century. Countries have also built more peaceful relations between and within them.”. It should be noted that even though killing has never been as efficient as it is in the present, in the past a lot of civilians died from famine and disease resulting from the wars.
For example, the Spanish flu following World War I killed between 25 to 50 million people. I should say those numbers are typically not included in the deaths from World War I. The number of deaths from World War I are estimated at 20 million. 10 million combatants and 10 million civilians.
One problem with this kind of statistics is that the estimates vary, especially with respect to civilian causalities. In addition, very big wars lasting a few years create very bumpy graphs with large spikes making it harder to identify trends.
However, by listing estimated war deaths of the biggest wars, genocides and democides since the 1800’s you can see that deaths from this type of violence have overall been reduced over the last few decades. A note, democides are mass killings of civilians but are not necessarily directed at an ethnic group (democide include genocide).
The links below are mostly from Encyclopedia Britannica, but also from Wikipedia, the Census bureau, and a couple of other sources.
- Napoleonic wars – estimated 4 million deaths (or 3,250,000 to 6,500,000)
- Taiping rebellion, China, 1850 to 1864 – estimated deaths 20 to 30 million people.
- Congo free state genocide 1885 to 1908 – estimated 1.5 million to 13 million (median 5 million)
- First World War 1914 to 1918 – estimated deaths 15 to 22 million deaths.
- Armenian genocide 1915 to 1917 – estimated deaths 600,000–1.2 million.
- Russian civil war 1917 to 1922 – estimated 10 million deaths.
- The Chinese Civil War (1927-1950) – estimated deaths 7 million.
- Second World War 1939 to 1945 – estimated deaths 70 to 85 million deaths.
- Holocaust 1941 to 1945 – estimated 6 million Jews plus 5 million others.
- Soviet killing of citizens 1920 to 1960s (democide) – estimated 20 million deaths, maybe more.
- Korean War 1950 to 1953 – at least 2.5 million deaths.
- Algerian war of independence 1954 to 1962 – an estimated 500,000 to 1,500,000 deaths.
- Vietnam War 1954 to 1974 – an estimated 3.4 million deaths.
- Khmer Rouge in Cambodia – an estimated 1.6 to 3 million deaths.
- First Sudanese civil war 1955 to 1972 – an estimated 500,000 to one million deaths.
- Biafra war 1967 to 1970 – an estimated 500,000 to 3 million deaths.
- Second Sudanese civil war 1983 to 2005 – an estimated -1 million to 2 million deaths.
- Somalia civil war 1988-1990 – an estimated 350,000–1,000,000.
- Yugoslav civil war 1992 to 1995 – an estimated 130,000-140,000 deaths.
- Rwandan genocide 1994 – an estimated 800,000 deaths.
- The Second/Third Congo War 1996 to 2007 – an estimated 5.4 million deaths.
- Syrian civil war 2011 to now – an estimated 600,000 deaths.
- Ethiopian Tigray war 2022 – an estimated 162,000–600,000 deaths.
- Ukraine – Russia war 2022 to now – some estimates say 200,000 deaths.
- Sudanese civil war 2023 to 2024 – an estimated 150,000 deaths.
As I said, the numbers are estimates and not hard data, especially with respect to civilian casualties. However, you can see a trend going from several conflicts with numbers in the tens of millions before 1950, then numbers in millions until 2000/2007 and then during the last couple of decades the numbers have been less than a million. This does not cover homicide rates but even in that case we can see a reduction even though it is less distinct.
Finally, you can also take a look at this post “US Violent Crime Nearly Cut in Half Since 1990” and this article from pew research that includes a graph showing that the US violent crime rate has nearly halved since the 1990’s.
Also remember that in the past there were a lot less people on earth, so relatively speaking a million deaths was a lot bigger number back then. In summary, despite all the wars going on, our world is less violent than it used to be.
To see the other Super Facts click here
Newstrade
Thomas, what an insightful and thought-provoking post. I think your analysis sheds much-needed light on how skewed our perception of global conflict can be, especially when it’s driven by media coverage. I liked how you brought up the Taiping Rebellion—it’s a devastating piece of history that most people aren’t familiar with, yet its scale far surpasses many of the wars we commonly remember.
Your observation that war-related deaths have declined over the past decades, despite our modern world’s increased capacity for destruction, is a powerful reminder that progress is being made, even if it doesn’t always seem that way. It’s refreshing to see data backing up this claim, as it provides a broader, more accurate perspective on global peace and conflict.
Thanks for such an informative and historical lens on a topic that is often overshadowed by contemporary events.
LikeLiked by 2 people
Thank you so much for your kind words, Patricia. You are right. Media coverage is driven by viewer interest not the severity of the conflicts. I remember when I first came across the Taiping rebellion as a 12-year-old reading the Guiness Book of World Records. It was listed as the deadliest civil war in history. I was thinking, “why did we never hear about this in history class?”. The world history curriculum in Swedish public school was pretty good. We had studied Chinese history, and I knew about the Mongolian invasions, the Opium wars, the Boxer rebellion, the Chinese civil war, the Japanese invasion, the Korean war, the wars between India and China, and Vietnam and China, and a few more, but no one ever mentioned the Taiping rebellion. School books are not calibrated towards the size of the devastation either. So, if you are going to compare you’ve got to compare the statistics available.
LikeLike
As with the crime statistics, this goes against the grain if one gets all their information from the evening news. One of the things they taught us back in the day in our media classes is that media doesn’t teach people what to think (alas! no longer true) but what to think about.
One of the ironies is that at no point in human history have we had such easy access to such broad information and so many people ignore it. And who wants to pay attention to boring old statistics and numbers when it’s so much more fun to believe the sky is falling? (sarcasm, in case anyone is wondering). While the sky is falling can make cooler memes, boring old statistics and numbers help people make better judgements and decisions. And can make for some pretty cool memes, too.
thanks again, Thomas, for bringing up such interesting topics and food for thought.
LikeLiked by 2 people
Thank you so much for your very insightful comment Denise. I love this sentence “And who wants to pay attention to boring old statistics and numbers when it’s so much more fun to believe the sky is falling?”. Engagement, worries, opinions, and thinking are so heavily influenced by what we see in the media, and in social media and even the propaganda and misinformation circulating on social media. But so few are paying attention to the data collection done by various organizations and historians, and that information give a different impression.
LikeLiked by 1 person
I had trouble getting past the title, and then I realized, it’s all in the definition of the word ‘peace’.
LikeLiked by 3 people
Yes it is difficult to use the word “peace” to describe the state of the world, but that has always been the case. I guess the key word is “relatively”. Wikipedia lists 56 wars/conflicts in 1950’s causing at least 5-6 million deaths. That number would quadruple if you consider the great leap forward intentional. Yet the 1950’s was relatively peaceful (very much so) compared to the 1940’s. But you bring up a good point. Maybe that is not a good title.
LikeLiked by 2 people
HI Thomas, for me, this is a very interesting post although I do know about the war in Sudan and the wars over time in China. I have a broad interest in history and I live in Africa even though Sudan is on the other side of this continent. It is horrifying how often civil war and genocide appear on the above list.
LikeLiked by 4 people
Yes I know you are very well informed about our world and history as well as nature, so I am not surprised you would know. But I would not have known about Sudan if I hadn’t looked at the statistics and if I had not read the Economist, and I believe most people don’t know about it. I certainly agree with you, the list above is horrifying and yet I left out some big items because I forgot.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Yes, but it doesn’t matter about the missed items because the message remains. You are right that people only know the news that the first world governments want them to know. They decide on the focus and ignore what they don’t want people to know.
LikeLiked by 3 people
Thank you Robbie. I have to see if I’ll take the time to update the list a little bit. But you are right, it won’t change the point.
LikeLiked by 1 person
💚🌈
LikeLiked by 2 people
interesting – it’s all too easy to take things at face value, so your post is a great reminder to stay curious & to question everything
LikeLiked by 3 people
Thank you so much da-AL. Yes I agree. The media isn’t try to fool you but they need to present what the audience think is interesting, so they don’t distribute their attention according to the size of the problem. It always good to look up the data/statistics from reliable sources.
LikeLiked by 3 people
“Relatively” peaceful, yes, but I doubt world peace will ever be achieved. It was good to see those statistics proving the point, Thomas, as our perceptions become skewed watching the nightly newscasts. I am aware of the civil war in Sudan, but not the Tigray war. As always, I am grateful to be living in a peaceful country.
LikeLiked by 3 people
I have my doubts too. War is too natural for us considering our nature and the physical restraints of the world, including the existence of nations, limited resources, ideologies, religions, etc. But it is good news that it is less of it (on average) than it used to be. You are right newsmedia is skewing our perspectives. I don’t think it is intentional and the news corporations are much better than social media, but they reflect what we want to see.
LikeLiked by 2 people
Super post Thomas. Sad to say we are living in peaceful times, but I get the comparison statistics. And yes, Israeli news is my news of choice and it’s also quite educational to see what in fact is going on in the rest of the world. I’m quite aware of Sudan. Frightening stuff. 😦
LikeLiked by 2 people
Thank you so much Debby. You are certainly very well informed Debby.
LikeLiked by 2 people
Thanks Thomas. I do like to follow what’s going on in the world. 🙂
LikeLiked by 2 people
For some reason, conflicts in Africa are always under-reported, even though they have major repercussions.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Yes you are right. According to the Economist the current war in Sudan is not just devastating but a threat to world peace, and yet we hear almost nothing about it.
LikeLike